Why the SpaceX IPO Doesn't Add Up | Office Hours
Scott Galloway unpacks a troubling spike in unemployment among young women aged 25–34, tracing it to federal layoffs, the collapse of childcare infrastructure, and return-to-office mandates that disproportionately punish caregivers. He then turns his attention to SpaceX's upcoming IPO—touted as the largest in history at a $1.8 trillion valuation—and asks whether Wall Street has lost its anchor. Can the world's most dominant space company justify a 125× price-to-sales multiple, or are investors rationalizing a price that defies gravity? Finally, Galloway reflects on the undervalued art of rekindling old friendships and the repair that time makes possible.
Kernaussagen
The 80-basis-point jump in unemployment for women aged 25–34 is driven by federal layoffs, return-to-office mandates, and the collapse of childcare infrastructure—not a broader economic signal.
SpaceX's $1.8 trillion IPO valuation implies 125× price-to-sales, compared to Google's 10× at IPO when it was growing 10 times faster—this is speculation, not fundamentals.
Universal childcare and remote work flexibility for caregivers are not just moral imperatives—they are economically accretive infrastructure investments that unlock workforce participation and skills development.
IPOs on average underperform the broader market in the one-to-three years post-listing; SpaceX's 5× valuation increase in under a year and retail-heavy allocation are red flags.
Rekindling old friendships becomes easier and more rewarding with age as competitiveness fades and you celebrate each other's successes—reach out, organize reunions, and embrace repair.
Kurzgesagt
SpaceX is an extraordinary company with unmatched competitive moats, but at 125 times sales and a $1.8 trillion valuation, it is grotesquely overpriced—expect a post-IPO correction within three years.
The Hidden Crisis: Young Women Losing Jobs
Federal layoffs and childcare collapse hit women aged 25–34 hardest.
Why Mothers Working Strengthens the Economy
Remote work and universal childcare unlock workforce participation and skills.
Galloway argues that corporate America should embrace remote work for caregivers—not across the board, but as a strategic accommodation. In the 1990s, he hired talented mothers who were locked out of traditional firms like Nestlé or Levi Strauss because they required five-day-a-week in-office presence. Offering Monday-Wednesday-Friday in-office schedules was «a huge unlock» and a competitive differentiator. He believes the data show no evidence that mothers working harms children; in fact, daughters of working mothers are more likely to earn higher incomes later in life.
What is harmful, he contends, is when women are economically strained or lack access to affordable childcare, removing the option to work. This leaves them unable to develop skills or build financial independence, making them vulnerable if they divorce. Universal childcare, Galloway argues, is not charity—it is infrastructure investment with high economic return. Just as civil rights protections for women in the workplace were essential to maintaining U.S. economic dominance, childcare investment today would unleash an «incredible workforce» and address the reality that emotional and logistical labor still falls disproportionately to women.
SpaceX IPO: The Numbers Don't Lie
Record-breaking IPO at 125× sales with no comparable anchor.
Galloway's Verdict: Stay Away
SpaceX has unmatched moats but is grotesquely overvalued at this price.
“The only way I would invest is if I had access to the IPO and then I trade it out on the first trade, which I will not get access to the IPO because the investment banks I don't know. I just don't I don't see getting on the friends and family list of SpaceX. So, if you were to get into the IPO somehow, I think you'd want out after the first trade because as amazing as this company is, it is not anywhere near worth, nor can I think of a company worth 125 times price to sales.”
The Art of Rekindling Old Friendships
Age dissolves competitiveness; reach out, organize reunions, embrace repair.
Ping them Send a text or DM: «Hey, I was thinking about you. Let me know when you're in town. Let's grab a beer.» Describe your life briefly, then ask about theirs.
Organize a reunion Find a co-host (ideally someone cooler or more popular) and rent a restaurant. Invite people from different groups—kill 10, 20, 50 birds with one stone. Make sure there's alcohol.
Celebrate, don't compete As you age, the competitiveness and tribalism of youth fade. You become more benign, more human. You celebrate each other's success, look at pictures of kids, and reflect on the people you've lost.
Embrace repair Reconnecting is a chance to heal old wounds. Even if you won't be close friends again, it's rewarding to see what people are up to and share the bond of a common past.
Why Wall Street Can't Anchor SpaceX
Bankers cycle through Boeing, AT&T, Palantir—none fit; no anchor means speculation.
Why Wall Street Can't Anchor SpaceX
Aswath Damodaran's diagnosis is damning: «They made the decision already that SpaceX is a great buy. Now they're looking for some way that they can justify that.» When bankers can't find a peer, the valuation has no anchor. SpaceX's modes are real—it controls 80–90% of launch capacity and two-thirds of low-orbit satellites—but intelligence is holding two thoughts at once: incredible company, grotesque valuation. Expect a post-IPO pop driven by hype, then a 50%+ correction within one to three years.
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