Why China is the Key to the Iran Conflict
As the United States and Iran face off in a conflict that has already destroyed much of Iran's conventional weaponry, neither side can claim outright military victory. The U.S. cannot stomach another ground war like Iraq or Afghanistan, yet Iran remains too large and resourceful to be defeated from the air alone. With global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz at stake and both superpowers locked in stalemate, the question becomes: who holds the leverage to force a negotiated end? The answer may lie not in Tehran or Washington, but in Beijing.
Points clés
Neither the U.S. nor Iran can achieve outright military victory—ground invasion would risk another Afghanistan-style quagmire, while Iran's size and resources make it impossible to defeat from the air alone.
China has unexpectedly joined negotiations and refrained from supporting Iran, signaling it values U.S. market access more than its relationship with Tehran.
China holds the economic key: by withholding exports and refusing to buy Iranian oil, Beijing could cripple Iran's economy and force it to the negotiating table.
The U.S. can withstand international pressure and rising oil prices better than most other nations, giving it staying power in a prolonged standoff.
Trump's bet is that China will prioritize access to American markets over solidarity with Iran, making Beijing the broker of any eventual settlement.
En bref
China, not military force, is likely the decisive variable in the Iran conflict—its control over Iran's economic lifeline and its desperate need for U.S. market access give it unique leverage to pressure Tehran into negotiations, which Trump appears to be counting on.
The Military Stalemate
Neither side can win outright through force alone.
China's Surprising Role
Beijing joined negotiations instead of condemning Washington.
Normally, China would stay out of such a conflict, condemn the United States, and try to ship weapons to Iran. That's not what has happened. Instead, the Chinese ambassador has joined negotiations in Pakistan—a significant departure from expected behavior. China has a 2001 agreement to supply various resources to Iran, but it is not fulfilling those commitments.
The reason is straightforward: China desperately needs the upcoming summit with Trump to secure better access to U.S. export markets. The United States remains China's largest customer, and losing that market would be devastating to China's struggling economy. Putting pressure on Washington is both unlikely to succeed and costly; pressuring Tehran is more feasible and less risky.
This involvement signals that China values its relationship with the United States more than its relationship with Iran. Trump appears to be betting on exactly this calculation—that Beijing will prioritize American market access over Iranian solidarity and use its economic leverage to broker a settlement.
China's Economic Leverage Over Iran
The Pressure Asymmetry
America can outlast allies' complaints better than they can outlast oil disruption.
The Pressure Asymmetry
America will face intense diplomatic pressure to reopen the Strait of Hormuz from Gulf, European, and Asian allies dependent on that oil. But the U.S. has waged wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Vietnam despite strong international messages—it didn't work. The U.S. can withstand rising oil prices and diplomatic isolation better than most other nations can, giving it staying power in a prolonged standoff. The real question is not how much pressure Washington faces, but who can pressure Tehran effectively.
What Settlement Looks Like
Negotiation is the only realistic endgame for both sides.
“I would say that Iran can't really be defeated militarily. I would also say the United States can't be defeated militarily. Therefore, this is negotiation that comes out of this.”
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