Beyond Putin: George Friedman on Russia's Uncertain Future

Putin inherited a Russia humiliated by the Soviet collapse and the loss of Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Ukraine. His mission was clear: restore Russian greatness by demonstrating military power and reclaiming lost territories. That project has failed. Ukraine will not be won, the South Caucasus grows increasingly hostile, and Central Asia is now contested between the United States and China with Russia barely having a voice.

The Cold War positioned Russia as a global power and America's equivalent rival. Today, Russia has declined even further than after the Soviet Union's fall. It is neither a full democracy nor a true autocracy, but it does hold elections—manipulated or not. When Putin falls, a new leadership will likely emerge focused not on imperial ambition but on economic recovery and improving the lives of ordinary Russians.

Russia remains a player in foreign affairs, but it is no longer on par with the United States, a truly global economic and military power, or China, a global economic force constrained to the Pacific. A new geopolitical reality has settled inside Russia, and the country must now reconsider its identity.

Europe is not the United States that could benefit Russia economically—Europe is. The continent is absolutely opposed to Putin and the Ukraine war, rationally so. But what happens if a new Russian leader ends the war, reduces militarism, and offers economic partnership? Then Europe confronts a decision it has avoided for decades: what is Europe, really?

The EU economy is larger than China's, but it's fragmented across nations with competing interests. Germany does one thing, Poland another, Britain whatever it wants. If Europe could become a true federation, it would be a global power. But that's unlikely. Instead, Europe clings to NATO because it allows them to avoid making decisions—the Americans do it for them. The current American «reduction in commitment» has exposed European dependence and forced an uncomfortable question.

The Cold War is over under any circumstances. Russia will rebuild as a significant economic force, trading with the United States, China, and Europe. The truly interesting question is not what Russia becomes, but whether Europe can define itself in a world where a dangerous Russia transforms into a potential European partner.