George Friedman on Why Artemis Is About More Than Exploration

Low Earth orbit has become dangerously overcrowded with defunct satellites, fragments, and operational systems—creating a minefield where any nation's space assets risk catastrophic collision. The probability of losing satellites to space junk is climbing, but an even more immediate threat looms: anti-satellite weapons will likely be the opening salvo of any future conflict. Unlike terrestrial warfare, satellites in low Earth orbit cannot disperse for safety—their orbits are fixed by physics and mission requirements—and maneuvering constantly would drain energy and interrupt Earth observation.

This creates an impossible tactical dilemma. Forces can either disperse (impossible in orbit), stay agile through constant maneuvering (rendering satellites operationally useless), or take cover. In space, cover is nearly impossible to find—except on the moon. The lunar surface offers natural protection that no orbital position can match, making it the logical fallback as Earth's orbital zones become contested battlegrounds.

Columbus secured Spanish funding not from scientific curiosity but from geopolitical necessity—Spain needed an alternate route to India's wealth after Portugal monopolized the African passage. His accidental discovery of the Caribbean immediately became a theater of European warfare. This pattern is repeating with lunar exploration: China, the United States, and formerly Russia are pursuing moon programs not for knowledge but for strategic positioning in what they anticipate will be contested space.

The wealth of the Americas was unknown when Europeans first landed—Texas offers different resources than Russia, and early explorers had no idea what agricultural and mineral riches awaited. Similarly, the moon remains largely unexplored beyond a few landing sites. Artemis represents the systematic exploration phase that will determine whether lunar resources justify permanent colonization, but military considerations are already driving the timeline regardless of what minerals might be found.