Fareed Zakaria on the Endgame in Iran | Prof G Conversations
In the wake of a massive U.S.-Israeli military campaign targeting Iran's leadership and infrastructure, the world is asking: can air strikes alone topple a 47-year-old theocratic regime? President Trump has framed the mission as regime change, staking success on the collapse of the Islamic Republic. Yet Fareed Zakaria warns that Iran is a deeply institutionalized state — not a one-man dictatorship — and survival alone may count as victory for Tehran. The conversation raises urgent questions about off-ramps, regional stability, and whether the diaspora's dream of a secular, prosperous Iran can emerge from the rubble.
Pontos-chave
The Trump administration has defined success as regime change in Iran, a goal historically difficult to achieve through air power alone without ground forces or a clear domestic opposition army.
Iran's retaliatory strikes against nine Gulf states backfired strategically, uniting the Arab Gulf in support of the U.S.-Israeli campaign and isolating Tehran regionally.
Israel has emerged as the superpower of the Middle East, with extraordinary military and intelligence capabilities demonstrated by the penetration of Iran's nuclear, military, and clerical establishments.
If the conflict drags into October without a clear off-ramp, it could fracture Trump's base and revive «forever war» campaign attacks by Democrats heading into the 2026 midterms.
A transformed Iran — secular, trade-oriented, aligned with its highly educated, pro-Western population — could unlock unprecedented stability and prosperity in the Middle East, but only if the regime collapses.
Em resumo
Without clear, achievable objectives beyond regime collapse, the United States risks a forever war in the Middle East — even as the potential for a transformed, trade-oriented Iran remains tantalizingly close if the Islamic Republic falls.
The High-Stakes Gamble: Upsides and Downsides of Striking Iran
Air strikes aim for regime collapse, but institutionalized power makes victory uncertain.
Iran's Strategic Blunder: Uniting the Gulf Against Itself
Retaliatory strikes on Arab states backfired, galvanizing regional support for U.S.-Israel.
Iran's decision to launch retaliatory strikes against civilian and infrastructure targets across nine Gulf states was intended to sow regional chaos and demonstrate that war would not be confined to Iranian territory. The gambit failed spectacularly. Zakaria calls it Tehran's «biggest miscalculation,» noting that the attacks had minimal military impact but massive political consequences.
Gulf states that had previously been neutral — some even refusing the U.S. use of their airspace or facilities — are now «all in,» privately encouraging Washington and Jerusalem to continue the campaign. Several have even offered to participate directly to send a message to Iran. The result is a Middle East more unified against Tehran than at any point in recent memory, undermining Iran's remaining regional leverage.
The incident underscores Iran's weakened position. Lacking the firepower to sustain a broad regional offensive, Tehran's pin-prick attacks achieved the opposite of their intended effect: isolating the regime and strengthening the coalition arrayed against it.
Israel as the New Middle Eastern Superpower
October 7th unlocked Israeli restraint, revealing unmatched military and intelligence dominance.
Israel as the New Middle Eastern Superpower
Zakaria argues that October 7th was one of the greatest geopolitical miscalculations in modern history. It eliminated Hamas as a fighting force, defanged Hezbollah, contributed to Assad's collapse, and neutered Iran. Israel, long constrained, went «all out» with tacit Gulf Arab support. The result: Israel is now the superpower of the Middle East, with extraordinary military reach and intelligence penetration of Iran's nuclear, military, and clerical establishments.
The Messaging Problem: No Clear Off-Ramp
Trump defined success as regime change, making any other outcome hard to spin.
Zakaria identifies the administration's biggest mistake: failing to articulate clear, achievable objectives. Instead of framing the mission around degrading Iran's missile capability, naval power, or command-and-control infrastructure, Trump and Netanyahu publicly defined success as regime collapse. That sets a binary outcome that is both highly visible and difficult to achieve.
Historically, the Powell Doctrine emphasized defining success criteria before military action so that victory could be declared and forces withdrawn. Here, the administration has no such roadmap. If the regime survives — even in a weakened state — it will be difficult to claim success. Zakaria suggests the White House should pivot to listing concrete achievements: percentages of offensive capacity destroyed, factories eliminated, militias defunded. That would allow an off-ramp before the conflict becomes a political liability heading into the 2026 midterms.
The Dream of a Transformed Iran
A Defining Quote on the Path Forward
Zakaria warns that hope must be tempered by the difficulty of toppling entrenched regimes.
“I would love to see a secular Iran that was playing the kind of role that you're describing in the world. And all I'm saying is to get there this Islamic regime needs to collapse or be toppled.”
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